Handle Fleet Forecasting

General

This sub process handles creation and approval of operational budgets.

Make Operational Budget

Before the beginning of the year, as a result of the operative planning for one year or less than five years, a budget is created for the use of different types of material per year. This is inserted in the system by owner and material type. These yearly budgets are equally divided into months but can differ if the load varies for some months over the year. The next yearly budget can then be accepted.

Before the beginning of the month, the monthly budget is divided on the owner's vehicles. Support for the right distribution of the monthly budget is provided.

After the monthly budget for the next month is confirmed, you can create operational events for this month. These can be single events (e.g., transportation of goods and exercises) or daily repeated events (e.g., transportation of people or goods according to routes).

The material disposition in the form of selected vehicles can then take place. Support to choose the right serials is provided. If desired, you can then make personnel dispositions for the operational event.

Operational Budgets

When creating a new budget, the total budget value is automatically spread over 12 months. If the values do not add up to 12, the remainder is added to the twelfth month. Every monthly value is divided on the number of vehicles defined in the budgets of the year as vehicle article number and owner. If the monthly values do not add up to the number of serials, the remainder is added to the last serial. You cannot register budgets more than 10 years back in time.

When the budget for a year's months are approved, the yearly budget can be approved. The yearly total value must be equal to the total value for the months before the yearly budget can be approved. You cannot make changes on any budget after they have been approved. To make changes, the status must be changed. This year and the following years can be disapproved.

To delete a budget year, use the remove budget year function. All information (even on serial and for months) for this year is then deleted. You cannot delete a budget year that is approved. Old budgets are the only exception.

Run Forecasting

General

Based on operational budgets (e.g., flying hours or miles) for the use of the fleet (e.g., aircraft or locomotives) for a number of years ahead, order history, fault history, and operational log history (e.g., flying hours or miles) that are present in the application, you can calculate forecasts for preventive and corrective maintenance over the budget horizon (e.g., 5 years).

The forecast calculation results in material needs for parts, components, and consumables, which after simulation may be transferred to inventory and reduced against work orders as they are generated. The forecast also shows capacity needs per resource (person group) and workshop.

Calculation of Forecasts

For each vehicle part, the last three years of history is worked through for performed operations (flying hours, miles, etc.). For each serial connected to this part, yearly values are calculated and accumulated. Where the serials have different usage patterns, the accumulation is per maintenance group. Serials lacking budgets or operational logs because they are new or have not been used the last year, are not taken into consideration when performing the calculation.

The calculated values are weighted, e.g., 50% last year, 30% the second last year and 20% the third last year. A weighted historical average for the last three years is then calculated per vehicle part and maintenance group.

Rules for Calculation of Parameter Data:

Calculation of Forecast n Years Ahead:

For the next n years, a yearly forecast per part and maintenance group is calculated based on the operational budget per month. Based on this forecast and the weighted historical average, an average forecast value for the forecast horizon is calculated.

For vehicle parts that have not gotten operational budgets, the yearly forecast every year is set equal to the weighted historical average for the last three years.

Rules for Calculations n Years Ahead: